| Tranche 0: Build & AM Bid Sheet |
$0 |
3-Step Lander + Durable Object Coordinator (`madrone-iv-global-v1`) + 4 Hero `9:16` Hybrid Videos + Official `Marketcall` / `ServiceDirect` ZIP payout CSVs |
Advance to Tranche 1 once AM approves social pre-lander and confirms active buyer bids (`≥ $180–$236+`). |
| Tranche 1: CTR, Quiz & First-Dial Gate |
$200 / arm (`$400` total) |
`Outbound CTR ≥ 1.0%` target (exact one-sided binomial `p = 0.01` early kill rules • `< 0.50%` hard kill at `N = 1,000`), `Quiz Complete ≥ 25%` (cost/quiz `≤ $11`), `Tap-to-Call ≥ 10%` (`≥ 2` raw dials) |
KILL at `$200` if `CTR < 0.50%` at `N = 1,000` (or `0` clicks at `N ≥ 459`, `≤ 1` click at `N ≥ 662`, `≤ 2` clicks at `N ≥ 838`), `Quiz < 20%` at Tranche 1 completion (or `≤ 10%` severe-friction early kill across `≥ 20` link clicks), or `< 1` raw dial across 20 quiz completions. |
| Tranche 2: Buffer Survival & 0.52x Bid Gate |
+$300 / arm (`$500 / arm` cum. + `$300` Search control = `$1,300` cum.) |
`Connected-to-Billable Decomposition`: `75.0% (Connected/Tap) × 53.33% (Billable/Connected) = 40.0% (Billable/Tap)` (`≥ 4` billable calls out of `10–11` dials, `≥ 36%` tap-to-billable rate), `Pre-Dispute Call Cost ≤ 0.52 × Live Exchange Bid` (`$122.75` pre-dispute → `$188.85` post-dispute at 65% acceptance) |
KILL at `$500` if callers fail the 60s/90s buffer (`< 4` billable calls across `10–11` dials) or `Pre-Dispute Call Cost > 0.65 × Bid`. |
| Tranche 3: Confirmation Scale (Winner) |
+$2,300 (`$2,800` cum. on winner; `$3,600` total program budget) |
`n = 12–15` post-dispute billable calls over 10–14 business days; live 7–30 day buyer dispute reconciliation hold |
INITIAL DIRECTIONAL PROFITABILITY (30-Day Dispute Hold Before Uncapped Scale): `Post-Dispute Net ROAS ≥ 1.25x` (`≥ $236` realized payout against `$189` net CPQC). |